Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model

Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates runoffs of headwaters Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to period 1976~2005, temperatures are projected increase 1.22 ± 0.72 °C during 2036~2065 RCP8.5 scenarios, a larger increment south Tianshan mountains lower north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation expected 3.81 14.72 mm 20.53 27.65 2036–2065 2066–2095, respectively, scenario. The mountainous four directly recharge mainstream demonstrate an overall increasing trend 21st century. Under RCP4.5 3.2% 3.9% (amounting 7.84 × 108 m3 9.56 m3) 2006–2035. Among them, Kaidu River, which dominated rainfall snowmelt, present slightly decreasing trends 3~8% scenarios. For catchments located Mountains (e.g., Yarkant Hotan Rivers mix-recharged glacier melt, rainfall), will significantly, especially summer due increased melt precipitation. Seasonally, shows forward shift peak flow. streamflow rivers poses challenges flood risk management.